March Madness Preview: Thursday Matchups
March is upon us.
SOUTH: 8 Louisville vs. 9 Creighton
THURSDAY AT 12:15 PM on CBS (LOU -2.5)
This is a great matchup to kick off two days of round one madness, an ACC vs. Big East battle. Creighton pulled off a nine-point win over UConn in the Big East tournament before losing, 82-66, to red-hot St. John’s for what would’ve been Creighton’s first ever Big East tournament title. Instead, they lost their program’s fifth Big East title game. Creighton did beat St. John’s earlier in the year, in addition to wins over Kansas, Marquette and a regular season win at UConn. Louisville also went to their conference title game, losing to Duke, but beating tournament five-seed Clemson in the ACC semifinals. The Cardinals are top-30 in both offensive and defensive effeciancy, which is impressive for an eight-seed. Chucky Hepburn is their 6-2 guard, who scores 16.2 points per game, and adds 5.8 assist per game, which is top 25 in the country. He’s definitely a weapon in his first year at Louisville, after scoring 1,000+ points in three years at Wisconsin. Terrence Edwards Jr. adds 16.6 PPG for Louisville. This one could be a real thriller to kick off March Madness.
MIDWEST: 13 High Point vs. 4 Purdue
THURSDAY AT 12:40 PM on truTV (PUR -7.5)
Purdue has made the NCAA tournament every year since 2014-15, but it hasn’t been quite that simple. In 2023, they were the second team ever to be upset by a 16-seed, Fairleigh Dickinson. In 2021, they were upset by 13-seed, North Texas. In 2016: 12-seed Little Rock. They have not had the best of luck in these types of scenarios, and this is not going to be an easy game for the Boilermakers. High Point won the Big South regular season and tournament championship, and have really strong momentum going into this matchup. Purdue has had some really strong points of the season, most of all tournament two-seed Alabama early in the year. They’ve also lost to Penn State, Ohio State and Indiana, all in Big Ten play, and all teams that aren’t dancing this March. HPU hasn’t dropped a single game since January 16 to Longwood on the road. They beat Gardner-Webb, Radford and Winthrop en route to the Big South championship. There’s a lot to like about this being a potential 13 over 4 scenario in the first round.
EAST: 14 Montana vs 3 Wisconsin
THURSDAY AT 1:30 PM on TNT (WIS -16.5)
The Wisconsin Badgers lost by six points to Michigan in the Big Ten final. Down the stretch of the regular season, they dropped their final game to Penn State, but really proved themselves in the Big Ten tournament, beating Northwestern, UCLA, and tournament two-seed Michigan State by three points to play for a B10 championship. 6-5 Senior Guard John Tonje is the star, averaging 19.2 PPG at his third school. He spent his first four years at Colorado State, last year at Missouri before leaving for Madison. 6-11 Sophomore Nolan Winter provides a huge prescence down low, hauling in 5.9 rebounds a game which leads the Badgers, and 9.5 points a game. Montana has been to the tournament 12 times, most recently in 2019, as a 15-seed against 2-seed Michigan. But, the Grizzlies have not won since 2006, as a 12-seed over 5 Nevada. They lost on March 1, a 79-76 overtime loss to Portland State. They’ve won four straight since that, including three against Northern Arizona, Idaho and Northern Colorado to a Big Sky Conference title.
MIDWEST: 16 SIUE vs. 1 Houston
THURSDAY AT 2 on TBS (HOU -28.5)
Statistically, Houston is the second-best defensive team in the country. They are also top-ten in the offensive category. But, they played in the Big 12, which is not the SEC, and not nearly the same competition level. The Cougars dropped a couple games early in the season to Auburn, Alabama and San Diego State, all teams who heard their name called on Selection Sunday. But, Houston’s four total losses on the year have all been five points or less, and all but the Auburn loss were in overtime. I don’t expect overtime against SIUE, or Southern Illinois University Edwardsville, who turned a second-place finish in the Ohio Valley Conference into a conference tournament win. Southeast Missouri State beat SIUE twice in the regular season, but the SIUE Cougars got their revenge in the OVC final with a 69-48 win. Ray’Sean Taylor is the bucket-getter for SIUE, scoring 19.3 PPG, which is tied for 33rd in the nation. The only postseason the SIUE program has seen has been in NCAA Division II. The program became D-1 in 2008, and are in the dance for the first time ever, so this one means a good deal for the community in Southeast Illinois, win or lose.
SOUTH: 16 Alabama State vs. 1 Auburn
THURSDAY AT 2:50 PM on CBS (AUB -32.5
It takes just under an hour to get from Auburn University to Alabama State University in Birmingham, so these two institutions are plenty familiar with each other. While the game will take place in Lexington, Kentucky, the state of Alabama will be feeling the atmosphere between the two. That said, Auburn is obviously the much stronger team, and have experience on their side. The average of the Tigers? 23 years old. 22-year old Johni Broome is the centerpiece of the Tigers, the only competitor of Cooper Flagg’s for the Naismith Player of the Year. 25-year old Chad Baker-Mazara is the sidekick, but needs to control his emotions in tournament play to keep Auburn in the running to cut down the nets. He was ejected from the Tigers’ season finale against Alabama which it lost, similar to last year’s first-round Auburn loss to Yale, a 13 over 4 upset that is fueling a revenge run for Auburn. Alabama State created the first highlight of the tournament in the first four, a football style pass to defeat St. Francis (PA), 70-68, to earn their way into the bracket. Both teams were sloppy in that game, and Alabama State was out-rebounded 30-23. They will not be able to play as sloppy and only turn the ball over six times against a team like Auburn, if they intend to keep things close.
MIDWEST: 12 McNeese State vs. Clemson
THURSDAY AT 3:15 PM on truTV (CLEM -7.5)
McNeese, more specifically their viral manager Amir Khan, has already won the hearts over of a lot of people in the country. The Cowboys are coached well by Will Wade, who announced Wednesday that this is his last run with the team, he’ll be NC State’s coach next year. They kept an eight-point game with Alabama early in the year, a three-point game against Mississippi State, and won the Southland Conference regular season and tournament titles. They are in a great spot, except they’re still dealing with a major issue that proved costly for them last year: their matchup. The Cowboys were seeded 12th in last year’s bracket, but couldn’t compete with five-seed Gonzaga in the first round. It’s reasonable to expect the same thing this year against Clemson, because the Tigers are good. The ACC was unusually weak this year, but Clemson proved themself with a win against Duke on February 8, the only loss for Duke in ACC regular season play this year. Clemson’s only two really good out-of-conference matchups were Kentucky and Memphis, beating KU and losing to Memphis earlier in the year. I, along with seemingly everyone outside of Clemson, SC, would love to see McNeese win their first-ever tournament game after 2024 heartbreak. Will they? It won’t be that simple.
EAST: 11 VCU vs. 6 BYU
THURSDAY AT 4:05 PM on TNT (BYU -2.5)
In 2011, current Marquette head coach Shaka Smart took VCU to the Final Four. The Rams have been back in the bracket nine times since then, and are ready for another miracle run through the big dance, but they’ve got a really tough team to beat in round one. BYU’s program is on the upward trajectory since the school’s move from the West Coast Conference to the Big 12. They will have the nation’s top recruit, AJ Dybantsa, next year after forking over around $7 million in NIL revenue. For now, their top scorer is Richie Saunders, a sharpshooter. VCU’s coach, Ryan Odom, was the head coach for the first-ever 16 seed to beat a one-seed, when 2016 UMBC beat Virginia handedly. He looks to pull off another upset of smaller portions on Thursday.
MIDWEST: 9 Georgia vs 8 Gonzaga
THURSDAY AT 4:35 PM on TBS (GONZ -6.5)
Georgia is one of 14 SEC teams in the bracket, the most teams from any conference into the tournament ever. Because of that, Oklahoma had a top 15 strength of schedule in the country, and are going to play yet another tough team for their first-round matchup. Gonzaga has built a stereotype on themself that they can’t pull through in March. They’ve come in with some really incredible teams, but they’ve never won a NCAA championship in program history, and it didn’t seem this was going to be the year. It would still be a longshot for them to win the championship, but coming into their West Coast Conference tournament as a two-seed behind St. Mary’s was not a great starting spot. The Zags took over that WCC bracket, and won by eight over St. Mary’s to take home the trophy. Towering Drew Timme is long gone, but a new giant, 6-9 Graham Ike, is filling in nicely. Ike scores 17.1 points a game, and adds 7.5 rebounds per game. Ryan Nembhard is one of the country’s top guards for Gonzaga, scoring 10.8 PPG, and adding 9.8 assists per game, which leads the nation. Georgia finished 9th in the SEC regular season standings, beating St. John’s, Kentucky, Oklahoma, Florida, Texas, and Vanderbilt, who are all in the field.
MIDWEST: 15 Wofford vs. 2 Tennessee
THURSDAY AT 6:50 PM on TNT (TENN -18.5)
Electric is the best way to describe Wofford’s conference tournament championship against Furman. The Terriers had just lost to Furman nine days earlier to conclude regular season play, and won the SoCon title game, 92-85, to enter into the field. Wofford was the sixth of ten seeds in the SoCon tournament, but got a few strokes of luck with matchups, and only had to beat conference three, seven and five seeds en route to the conference title. They may have a bit of imposter syndrome after a 19-15 record this year, playing on national TV, and that could be costly against a Tennessee team that is anything but undeserving. The Vols beat tournament one-seed Auburn in the SEC semifinals and lost to another tournament one-seed Florida in that game. Tennessee played 22 games from New Year’s Eve up to this point. 21 of their opponents are in the field. They are 15-6 in those games. That’s a tough schedule.
WEST: 10 Arkansas vs. 7 Kansas
THURSDAY AT 7:10 PM on CBS (KU -4.5)
This is a coaching battle between Bill Self and John Calipari, 1,709 wins between the two. Furthermore, the treat is probably going to be another coaching giant in Rick Pitino if his Johnnies can beat 15-seed Omaha. Arkansas is led by two guys that followed Calipari after he left Kentucky following last season, Adou Thiero and DJ Wagner. Thiero averages 15.6 points a game, and adds six rebounds a game. DJ Wagner puts up 3.5 assists a game, leading the Razorbacks, in addition to 11.1 PPG. Kansas is led by veteran center Hunter Dickinson, who scores 17.6 points per game and is 11th in the nation in rebounding with his ten rebounds a game. Dickinson has had double-digit points every year of his career, which includes three at Michigan and the last two at Kansas. Dickinson has played in seven tournament games in his career, but has never made a final four. They’ll have a tough one to start with this 10-7 matchup.
SOUTH: 13 Yale vs. 4 Texas A&M
THURSDAY AT 7:25 PM on TBS (TA&M -7.5)
This has been a commonly picked 13 over 4 upset for many, and I absolutely see why. Yale was in this same situation last season, just having four-seed Auburn on the other end rather than the Aggies. Texas A&M has been given a lot of credit all year, capped off by a potentially high four seed for them from the selection committee. They dropped four in a row in mid-February to Mississippi State, Tennessee, Vanderbilt and Florida, all tournament teams. The Aggies bounced back in the fifth game, beating (at the time) top team in the country, Auburn, followed by a win at LSU. The roller coaster continued with an SEC tournament loss to Texas, a bubble team at the time. Yale, on the other end, has been better this year than last year’s team. They beat Princeton in a thrilling Ivy League semifinal by two, 59-57. The next day, Selection Sunday, they beat Cornell, 90-84, for a second-straight Ivy League trophy. Yale Guard John Poulakidas is top-35 in the country in scoring, and he’s sunk 83 three-pointers both this year and last year. The upset potential is mighty in this one.
WEST: 11 Drake vs. 6 Missouri
THURSDAY AT 7:35 PM on truTV (MIZ -6.5)
Drake is another team on the train of potential upsets, after a tremendous season capped off by a Missouri Valley Conference tournament win, or ‘Arch Madness’, hosted in St. Louis. Missouri is another SEC gauntlet survivor. This game has all the makings to be a really strong matchup. It’s easy to pat an SEC team on the back for surviving their schedule, and it’s fair, but Missouri is still 32nd in strength in schedule, the second lowest on that list for SEC squads, as Vanderbilt trails them just one spot below. Drake does not have star forward Robbie Avila from last season, who stole the show in the tournament, but they do have 6-4 junior Bennett Stirtz, who scores 19.1 points a game, top 45 in the nation. Stirtz shoots nearly 50% from the field, and almost 80% at the line. Definitely a team to keep an eye on for a run in March.
MIDWEST: 10 Utah State vs. 7 UCLA
THURSDAY AT 9:25 PM on TNT (UCLA -4.5)
It’s the third game in a row tomorrow night that seem like they could pull off a win over a power five school. The Aggies finished third in the Mountain West regular season, and went on to see Colorado State in the MW Championship game, which it lost, 83-72. There is definite reason to question teams from the Mountain West after a 95-68 smackdown of San Diego State from UNC on Tuesday’s first four game. It’s less-so that Utah State is really good, and more-so that UCLA is not the UCLA of the past right now under the leadership of Mick Cronin. Cronin has dealt with many issues this year, including the intense travel for a team in Los Angeles to travel consistently to the Mid-West, Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Maryland this season in the revamped Big Ten. He’s dealt with lack of energy and effort out of his players. He’s being rumored in job openings at Villanova. His team ran head first into Wisconsin in their first Big Ten tournament game, a 16-point loss for the Bruins. It does not seem like UCLA has any momentum coming into this meeting, and Utah State might be able to walk right through the door into round two.
MIDWEST: 15 Omaha vs. 2 St. John’s
THURSDAY AT 9:45 PM on CBS (SJU -18.5)
By now, everyone has heard the stat. Rick Pitino is the only coach in college basketball history to lead six different schools to the NCAA tournament. It’s as impressive as it sounds, but when you dive in, you may see some similarities. Pitino’s 2011-12 Louisville team shot only 31.8% from three, but made the Final Four. His team next season, 2012-13, shot 33.3% from three, but won the national championship. This St. John’s team shoots 30.4% from deep, but they have the best defense in the nation. Omaha finished as the top team in the Summit League, and were the first team to qualify for the tournament. They punched their ticket to the dance after their win in the Summit League semifinals, because their championship game opponent, St. Thomas, is in the D-2 to D-1 transition, ruling them ineligible for postseason play. Omaha beat St. Thomas anyways, and we don’t have a what could’ve been scenario here. The Mavericks’ postgame celebration involves beating up a trashcan, but I see all trashcans staying intact after this 15-2 matchup.
MIDWEST: 12 UC-San Diego vs. 5 Michigan
THURSDAY AT 10 PM on TBS (MICH -2.5)
Some see an upset. But, Michigan is riding high with new head coach Dusty May after three straight wins in the Big Ten tournament to win the championship and earn an auto-bid on Selection Sunday. It was a nice rebound for the Wolverines after dropping three straight to conclude the regular season, falling to Illinois, Maryland and Michigan State, all tournament teams. It’s Dusty May’s first season in power five basketball, but he knows how to win in March, as he did in 2023, taking a nine-seed in Florida Atlantic University to wins over Memphis, Fairleigh Dickinson, Tennessee and Kansas State before losing to San Diego State in the Final Four. UCSD did not have a strong strength of schedule, only seeing two tournament teams, San Diego State and Utah State, all year. But, the Tritons do have one of the best mascots and logos in the field.
MIDWEST: 14 UNC-Wilmington vs. 3 Texas Tech
THURSDAY AT 10:10 PM on truTV (TTU -14.5)
UNCW were the dreamstoppers in the CAA tournament, beating Delaware in the Coastal Athletic Association championship. The Blue Hens were the 12th and last seed and had a chance to make the tournament, allbeit as a 16-seed, and shock their conference. Now, the Seahawks have a chance to be the spoilers for Texas Tech, and I must say, I don’t hate their chances. The Red Raiders are 6th in offensive effeciancy, but their defense is lacking and their strength of schedule is nowhere close to the likes of anyone in SEC basketball. Tech took a loss to Arizona in the Big 12 semifinals, missing the opportunity to get a third crack at tournament one seed Houston, after splitting the pair of games with UH this season. Their February 1 overtime win over Houston, is definitely their shining spot of the season. UNCW finished the year on a six-game heater, and they look to make it seven in what would be a shocker in Wichita. After all, they’ll be in the land of the Wichita State “Shockers”.